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Multiple times during his career, Sir Alex Ferguson stated that the Premier League starts in April. Apart from the limited number of games left, the month is often full of high-stake fixtures. Add the pressure of the title race and the month becomes one that makes or breaks the season for title contenders.
As Manchester United holds the record for most Premier League titles with 13, all won under Ferguson, the Scot has some experience in the matter. So, how true is it that April is when the league really starts? How often has the league been decided in the final games? And how much importance do the other months, like December with its congested calendar, have in the title race?
The 2025/26 title race
For the majority of the 2025/26 season, Arsenal has been the main contender for the Premier League title. Would they succeed, it would be their first title since their invincible campaign in 2003/04. The Gunners have topped the table since matchday seven after they beat West Ham at home (2-0). Now, in the final stretch of the season, only Manchester City is still a real threat to their title aspirations.
City has been playing catch up with Arsenal since they lost their second game of the season. With the point difference fluctuating from two points during most of December to nine points half March. However, with City having a game in hand (since matchweek 26).
A six-point difference with a game in hand for City and a direct confrontation taking place at the Etihad on Sunday April 19th means that City can still come level in points if they win the remaining games. Only once before did two clubs finish with the same number of points in the Premier League era. In 2011/12, Manchester City snatched the tile with two goals in stoppage time on the final matchday. It brought them equal with Manchester United on 89 points. With City having the better goal difference (64 versus 56).
When has the Premier League title been decided?
The title race is often going down to the wire. Since the start of the Premier League era, the championship has been decided on the final matchday on 10 occasions. That is 30 percent of the seasons. Meaning that it took 38 matches – and in 1994/95 even 42 matches – to decide the champions.
During the last decade, the title race was decided in May on seven occasions. In the pandemic-hit 2019/20 season – which resulted in the league finishing at the end of July – Liverpool was crowned champions on June 25th. Although the latest in the year due to the midseason break, it was also the earliest title win. With a record seven matches remaining. Manchester City and Manchester United are tied for the second earliest Premier League wins after winning the 2017/18 and 2000/01 titles respectively with five matches remaining.
Most matches in…
Apart from the final stretch of a season, some other months are considered crucial in title runs as well. Which often comes down to the number of matches played. December and February tend to have the most Premier League fixtures. The league’s champions of the past five seasons, played on average 5.2 matches in those two months. During April and May, they played on average 4.6 matches per month.
The least number of matches were played during August (2.6), November (2.8), and March (2.4). With the latter two months often interrupted by international and cup fixtures.
In which months was the champion most effective?
April was indeed the month in which the last five champions (2020/21-2024/25) collected the highest percentage of available points (88 percent). Manchester City (four titles) and Liverpool (one) combined collected over 80 percent of the available points across three other months. August (87 percent), January (84 percent) and February (82 percent).
In 2020/21, Manchester City had a perfect January and February. Collecting 36 points in 12 games. It accounted for 42 percent of their season’s point tally. The following season, City had a perfect score across 10 matches in November and December. While also collecting well over 80 percent of the points in April and May.
In March and April of 2022/23, champions City had a perfect score by winning seven out of seven games. They also collected 13 out of 15 points during August. In 2023/24, City had four perfect months: August, January, April, and May.
2024/25 champion Liverpool managed three perfect months: August, November and March. In April, they won four out five matches and secured the title. Before failing to win any of their final four games in May.
Perfect months by last five Premier League champions – with the perfect month defined as no point loss
| Season | Champion | Number of perfect months | Months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020/21 | Manchester City | 2 | January & February |
| 2021/22 | Manchester City | 2 | November & December |
| 2022/23 | Manchester City | 2 | March & April |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | 4 | August, January, April & May |
| 2024/25 | Liverpool | 3 | August, November & March |
Thus, the last five champions had perfect months across different months of the season. But they all recorded at least two months without losing points. In the final two seasons, the champions even performed perfectly across more than two months.
Record Premier League champion Manchester United
Like Ferguson said, the final stretch is important but also the knowledge that a good start does not have to mean anything. As all teams, including champions, will have better and worse periods.
Ferguson’s 13 titles across 21 seasons in the Premier League era was a dominant showing. With the Scot always finishing in the top three. Between 1992/93 and 2012/13, his teams collected 72 percent of the available points. Overall, they performed slightly better during the second half of the season (73 percent) than the first (71 percent). During the final 10 games across the seasons, Ferguson’s United collected on average 71 percent of the available points.
The difference between championship seasons and the seasons they finished second or third was generally made during the second half of the season. United collected around 71 percent of the available points during the first half of the season whether they ended up champions or not. During the second half of the season, they collected 76 percent of the points when winning the title. While only 69 percent of the points when they failed to win. In the final 10 games – often played in April and May – United collected 74 percent of the points when they won the English topflight. While this was 66 percent when they did not.
Which underlines Ferguson’s belief about the season’s final months. As United performed better during the second half of the season and final 10 games when they won the league.
Who is it going to be: Manchester City or Arsenal
The direct confrontation between City and Arsenal will be crucial for the 2025/26 title race. Does City win, there will be even more title pressure for Arsenal. During the last five seasons under Arteta, April has been the worst month for the Gunners. Only 53 percent of the possible points were collected in the month of April (40 out of 75 points).
City’s worst month across the last five seasons has been November. In which they only collected half of the available points (21 out of 42 points). However, due to international fixtures, City only played 14 matches in November during that period. In contrast, Arsenal played 25 league games in April. Which comes down to five games per season.
Arsenal did on average better than City in September, November and March during the previous five seasons. All months with few Premier League games due to international fixtures. While City collected significantly more of the available points in August, January and April. With the latter two months having many fixtures.
Past of Arsenal not too promising
Especially the results in the final two months of the past five years are in City’s favour. Furthermore, Arsenal does not have a positive balance when it comes to Premier League title races. They have won the title three times across 33 Premier League seasons. However, the Gunners finished second on nine occasions. More than any other side.
Rival Manchester City won eight titles and secured a second place on three occasions. Like Arsenal, Liverpool – two titles and five second places – and Tottenham Hotspur – one second place – also have a negative balance when it comes to finishing in the league’s top two.
How often have the Top Six finished in the top two in the Premier League era between 1992/93 and 2024/25
| Club | Top two finish | Champion | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United | 20 | 13 | 7 |
| Arsenal | 12 | 3 | 9 |
| Manchester City | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 4 |
| Liverpool | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Although City’s title runs and performances at the end of the season are in their favour. Arsenal is still ahead in the race for the 2025/26 title. Like City, they control the outcome themselves. Win everything and Arteta’s men will be crowned champions. Yet, like Ferguson used to say, now the Premier League has really started. The pressure of the title race has arrived, and it will make or break their seasons.